Ten years after the UK embarked on a hasty referendum that split the country and triggered chaos, a warning emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Authorities and citizens drifted into Brexit and the similar might transpire with a national vote on a unified Ireland, initiating disturbances for which no one is ready.
That represents the warning from two prominent journalists from either side of the Irish border who have joined forces to analyse the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to create a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Structures Unprepared
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have concluded that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are gravely unready for a possibly contentious and monumental referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can emerge unexpectedly and can gain traction rapidly," the commentator said. "It is my view that the institutional structure of our archipelago remains highly fragile."
Book Publication Aims to Stir Debate
The duo have analysed the political, economic and societal arguments for any governmental shift in a publication, For and Against a United Ireland, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to stir debate on the topic with a tour of public talks that will take them to Westminster early next month.
"What haunts everybody, or ought to concern every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We must avoid a referendum on a binary, unclear proposal whose implications have not been spelled out because then you find yourself with an extraordinarily split population where the losing side are unable to accept defeat and the people who have won are uncertain exactly what it is that they have gained."
Governmental Mandate
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland secretary of state is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unification if it seems probable that a majority would approve.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists claim that moment is imminent, and a organisation named pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but both governments and pro-UK factions minimise the prospect, resulting in ambiguity whether or when there could be a referendum.
Absence of Substantive Discussion
Partisan language supporting and opposing unification has obscured the lack of serious debate, noted McBride.
"Many are for or against the notion but the detailed consideration which could extend past that to realise it is mostly absent. A lot has gone on in academia but scarcely any government figures or campaigners seek to involve themselves even with the essentials. For instance, what type of nation might be preferred? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the publication, none of the commentators supports unity or the status quo. Each writes two pieces that strive for impartiality in laying out the argument for a united Ireland and the argument against, assembling financial and societal data, historical precedents and governmental frameworks.
Discussions encompass flags and symbols, taxes, healthcare systems, retirement funds, public liabilities and the threat of pro-UK militancy. The goal is to enlighten and stimulate conversation.
"There's huge interest in the topic but there hasn't quite been a dialogue," said O’Toole. "Dialogue indicates an recognition of the concept that there may exist reasonable perspectives on either side."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters claim they prefer unification but reject greater financial contributions or adopting a alternative symbol to recognise unionists' British culture.
"Policymakers in Ireland must establish what the offer from pro-unification movements is beyond just stating: 'We want a unified Ireland and we value you'," remarked the commentator.
Likelihood of Referendum
McBride considers a referendum in his generation is probable and that it could happen unexpectedly. "There might be just a reckless or a ill-advised or a incompetent official who says: 'Let us proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have plausible, justified points, he commented. "Somebody will win on this issue and the other side will eventually not succeed but both parties has got important lessons to gain from the opposing positions."
Appeal for Wider Dialogue
Westminster needed to participate in the discussion, said O’Toole. "This concerns Britain. It's a British question equally as it is an Irish question."
