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New Yorkers will find out who will be their new city leader this Tuesday, in a contest that will decide who governs and protects the nation's largest city at a time when the former president has threatened to send armed forces to the city.

Against that backdrop, New York has witnessed a mayoral election that has matched two distinctly opposing Democratic figures against one another. The election has become an acrimonious face-off, laced with accusations of racial bias and anti-Muslim sentiment, but it is the ideological divide between the two main contenders that could have major implications for how the party performs in next year's congressional races.

The Rising Progressive

In the progressive corner is Zohran Mamdani, the young progressive candidate whose meteoric rise and grassroots campaign has attracted international attention. On the establishment side is the former governor, the ex- New York governor now campaigning independently – and benefiting from the support of ultra-rich donors and big business.

With days to go, it is the progressive, the one-time underdog who defeated Cuomo in the party primary who is solidly positioned as the leading candidate. The candidate, who has campaigned on a agenda of economic justice and promised to freeze rent for about 2 million city residents, has led his rival by double-digits across all surveys taken in October, and it is very much the progressive's election to throw away.

The Controversial Campaign

However, the former governor, who resigned as governor in 2021 amid accusations of misconduct, has made it clear he will battle to the finish, and not necessarily in an fair manner. He has trashed his opponent's objectives as unachievable, and in the final stretch chuckled along as a broadcaster made Islamophobic remarks about Mamdani, who is a Muslim. Two weeks ago, Cuomo was strongly criticized as racist after sharing an AI-generated ad that featured a series of racist stereotypes and showed his opponent freeing a convicts.

It's been a rather grubby conclusion to an race that could be key to the path that the party, struggling in its reaction to Trump's authoritarian grabs, adopts in the near future.

Broader Consequences

Should Mamdani wins convincingly, the establishment party leaders who have refused to endorse his bid will be forced to reckon with a platform that has appealed to Americans' anger at economic disparity, inflation and the political elite. It would be hard for the Senate leader and the House leader not to embrace at least a portion of Mamdani's progressive proposals about economic justice, given the newcomer has generated an excitement within the party arguably not seen since Bernie Sanders campaigned for the White House in 2016.

However, if the former governor, who had been predicted to sail to victory in the Democratic primary, complete a surprising comeback victory, it could cement national Democrats' current model of considered, lackluster resistance – a tactic that has angered the party base. A NYC rejection of the progressive's optimistic platform could convince party leaders that the wisest course is to stick to the political center – even as surveys show the present version of the Democratic party is widely disliked across the country.

Campaign Energy

Residents of New York appear to favor the progressive agenda. Surveys show that Mamdani supporters are much more excited about their choice than his opponent's supporters, something that has been apparent throughout the campaign. The candidate's snappy videos on digital platforms, his hopeful outlook for the city and his willingness to actually venture out and connect with voters in the metropolis has attracted an force of over fifty thousand supporters, many of them youth or new participants.

Personal Attacks

Yet, the former governor, 67, isn't giving up. And with the risks against him, the ex-leader has resorted to ugly messaging in recent weeks.

Following extensive launching various attacks at Mamdani to see what might resonate, Cuomo has narrowed his focus on attacking the candidate personally. He has called Mamdani, who was of Ugandan origin to Indian parents, an "radical", and popped up on Fox Business for an discussion with a rightwing host, where Cuomo claimed New York “will not survive” Mamdani as mayor. It reached a nadir last week, when Cuomo laughed along and said “that’s another problem” after a broadcaster said Mamdani would “cheer” another terrorist incident.

Political Landscape

The line of attack mirrors much of what Trump, who has sent the military reserves to the capital and warned to do the same to NYC, has said about Mamdani, and maybe that shouldn’t come as a surprise. A group of wealthy residents, including some who contributed to Trump in the last presidential race, have invested heavily into trying to get the independent elected, as other influential figures have urged Curtis Sliwa to drop out from the race.

Political Histories

As far as the his team, and his wealthy backers, are concerned, it should not have reached to this point. When Mamdani, one of one hundred fifty state legislators, launched his mayoral bid in October 2024, few had heard of him, and in reality, barely anyone even paid attention.

Cuomo, by contrast, eased his way into the contest in this year and became the instant favorite. He was the political heavyweight who seemingly held all the advantages. The quintessential political insider, he had married a political dynasty member and worked in Bill Clinton’s administration. He became New York governor in 2011, seventeen years after his father, Mario Cuomo, stepped down from the identical role.

Mamdani, who was elected to the state legislature in recently, does not have the comparable background. But his dedication to providing free buses and free childcare – along with the freeze-the-rent pledge – offer a more positive vision of the city's direction than Cuomo’s dire warnings about “mayhem” and rising criminal activity, and his promise to increase police presence.

Recent Challenges

Nevertheless, Mamdani has encountered some challenges in the final phase, after video emerged suggesting him implying the NYPD and the IDF were intertwined.

“We have to make clear that when the pressure of the police is on your throat, it’s been laced by the IDF,” the candidate said in the clip, filmed at a Democratic Socialists of America convention in 2023. The progressive, a vocal opponent of Israel who has said the nation is committing genocide in Gaza, indicated he was criticizing cooperative programs between the city police and Israeli forces.

Emotional Response

With the election nearing, the candidate appears to have won empathy and backing, however, for his reaction to Cuomo’s escalating attacks.

Mamdani responded to the independent's terrorism comments in an emotional video. In it, the candidate recalled how, when he first ran for the legislature, a Muslim uncle suggested to him that he did not have to tell people about his Muslim faith. It was a lesson, Mamdani said, that many local Muslims had been told “again and again”: “That security could only be found in the shadows of our city. That it is in those shadows alone where followers of Islam could embrace their full identities, and that if we were to emerge from those shadows, then it is in those silence that we must leave our beliefs.”

Speaking to the behavior of his opponents, who has claimed Mamd